The hottest three barrel oil integration drama may

Three barrels of oil integration drama may be staged, business pressure forced restructuring

facing the dual pattern of domestic state-owned enterprise reform and international industry reshuffle, some time ago, there were four guesses about "three barrels of oil" merger or split. Although such discussions have not entered the official stage, they are still ongoing in research institutions such as the Research Office of the State Council that provide decision-making advice to the government. "How to further reform the three major oil companies is currently in the sorting stage. Both official and private institutions are organizing personnel to carry out research. There are many kinds of research, and the pattern of China's oil and gas field may face changes in the future", an insider close to the Research Office of the State Council told the economic observer

the world's major oil and gas giants, which once enjoyed great success, have fallen into the crisis brought about by low oil prices. The news that British natural gas company (BG) was acquired by shell, which was disclosed in April this year, has now been confirmed. Gazprom, one of the world's largest natural gas companies with a sharp decline in market value, has been said to be facing the doom of spin off

at the same time, the path of reform and integration of China's state-owned enterprises is also being explored. The merger of CNR, China nuclear power and China power investment has become a reality, and the signal of COSCO and China Shipping integration is resurgent, all of which stimulate the nerve of "three barrels of oil"

will the pipe be split

since last year, there have been reports of the split of PetroChina, the split of pipelines, the merger of "two barrels of oil" or the merger of CNOOC and SINOCHEM

as early as 2010, the national development and Reform Commission discussed the issue of pipeline splitting. Recently, new news said that on August 27, PetroChina and Sinopec both mentioned the reform of the oil and gas system during the mid year performance conference held on the same day. Wang Dongjin, deputy general manager of PetroChina, revealed that the preparation of the oil and gas industry system reform plan organized and carried out by the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration is currently at the stage of soliciting opinions and revising and improving. It is certain that the development goal is to build a domestic leading comprehensive chemical industry base with core competitiveness. Moreover, he also said that the separation of oil and gas pipelines is in line with the general direction of the structural reform of the oil and gas industry, and it is also one of the key contents. At the same time, Wang Yupu, chairman of Sinopec, admitted that the company was preparing for the pipeline split in accordance with the relevant regulations and policies of the national development and Reform Commission. This seems to mean that the general direction of pipeline separation is taking shape

"at present, some of the major domestic oil companies are in favor of merging or splitting up. My opinion is that the professional splitting up of several major oil companies, especially the oil and gas pipelines and natural gas businesses with strong monopoly nature, has been carried out without delay." Shan Lianwen, vice president of CNOOC Energy Economics Research Institute, told the economic observer

the pipeline split and reorganization plan five years ago was finally abandoned due to lack of consensus. In the following years, PetroChina, the main holder of pipeline assets, was unable to bear the pressure of the huge scale of pipeline construction investment, and introduced social capital to build new oil and gas pipelines twice in a row in 2012 and 2013. In May 2014, after the reform of mixed ownership was launched, PetroChina announced that it planned to establish the second direction of the Eastern Pipeline Company: the future of automotive plastics, and publicly transfer 100% of the equity of the Eastern Pipeline Company through the property exchange

after 2010, under the influence of a reform plan written by Li Wei, director of the development research center of the State Council, and Liu He, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission at that time, the idea that the pipeline was split and independent at the end of 2013 prevailed again. In this reform plan, it was clearly stated that "the oil and gas pipeline business will be separated from the oil and gas enterprises with integrated upstream, middle and downstream operations, and several oil and gas pipeline companies will be established"

a few months later, the nature of oil and gas transportation of oil and gas pipelines was strengthened again. On February 13, 2014, the regulatory measures for the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline facilities (Trial) was issued and officially implemented, emphasizing that the "three barrels of oil" as an oil and gas pipeline operation enterprise should be open to third parties without discrimination in accordance with certain requirements to use its oil and gas pipeline facilities for transportation, storage, gasification, liquefaction, compression and other related services

it is worth noting that in early June this year, it was reported that PetroChina west east gas transmission line 2 and Sinopec Sichuan East gas transmission were interconnected. It is the first time in China that the pipelines of the two major oil companies have been interconnected under the background that PetroChina and Sinopec operate independently. It is believed that this may support the news that the pipeline business will be separated from "two barrels of oil" and a new pipeline company will be established to operate independently

it is understood that China's current total mileage of oil and gas pipelines is about 120000 kilometers, and the control pattern is dominated by "three barrels of oil". Among them, PetroChina operates about 70% of the country's crude oil pipelines and about 90% of the natural gas pipelines by virtue of special projects such as the China Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline and the west east gas pipeline, and controls 77000 kilometers of oil and gas pipelines. Sinopec followed, with more than 30000 kilometers of pipelines

however, the merger and split of "three barrels of oil" is only a big outline now, and there is still some distance from the specific implementation. A few days ago, Wang Yilin, chairman of PetroChina, also said during the mid year performance conference that "pipeline franchise is in line with the general direction of professional management, but China's natural gas pipeline construction is not yet fully equipped and mature, and it needs to be implemented in stages on the basis of macro top-level design due to various factors"

the overall merger is difficult

however, from the perspective of government departments, research institutions and oil enterprises, the idea of oil and gas pipelines being separated and operated independently is still highly recognized. Many experts and scholars, represented by fan Bi, deputy director of the Department of comprehensive economics of the Research Office of the State Council, have suggested that the "three barrels of oil" natural gas backbone business be merged to establish a new natural gas pipeline company

in fact, the reference to "splitting up" was once one of the contents of the reference to "splitting up PetroChina". In the second half of 2013, with the promotion of PetroChina's anti-corruption storm, the upsurge of feasibility analysis of "splitting up PetroChina" was set off among the media and industry insiders. At that time, there were more discussions in four directions: simply stripping the upstream business to establish a special national oil company; Split the PetroChina Pipeline and become an independent company; Learn from the experience of American Standard Oil Company to split PetroChina into regional companies according to regions; Divide PetroChina into independent exploration, pipeline, oil refining and sales companies according to each link of the industrial chain

however, the logic of the split is not clear. Around the beginning of this year, there were rumors of the merger of PetroChina and Sinopec, and the merger of CNOOC and Sinopec. Then on May 4, the leaders of the "three barrels of oil" took turns to take the helm, exchange with each other, and collectively change their commanders. Speculation about the reform of the oil and gas field even reached a climax

in this round of personnel adjustment of the helm of "three barrels of oil", Zhou Jiping, chairman of PetroChina, retired at the age of, and Wang Yilin, chairman of CNOOC, took over, while Yang Hua, former general manager of CNOOC, took over the position of chairman of CNOOC, fuchengyu, chairman of Sinopec, retired at the age of, and Wang Yupu, who has worked in Daqing Oilfield for many years, took over

just at the moment of the collective change of the "three barrels of oil", in just four days from May 4 to 7, there were a total of seven central enterprises. In addition to the "three barrels of oil", they also included Minmetals, FAW Group, Dongfang motor and China Construction Engineering Corporation. The chairmen of FAW Group and Dongfeng Motor were from each other's management team

before that, a media report about "central enterprises will be merged and reorganized on a large scale on the basis of classification, and it is expected to be reduced from 112 to 40 in the future" was rampant. Although SASAC quickly denied it to clarify the facts, the case of central enterprise merger has become confusing in the process of rumors, denial and realization, making some subsequent rumors of central enterprise merger complicated and confusing. The merger of CNR, CPI and national nuclear power is now a done deal, while the five listed companies under COSCO and CNOOC that were rumored to be merged earlier issued a suspension notice on August 7. The media also disclosed that the two sides had formed a "reform leading group" at the group level to discuss the integration and reform, and the merger and reorganization was imminent

however, at present, the overall merger resistance of several major oil majors is large. Qi Yudong, deputy dean of the school of Business Administration of Capital University of economics and trade, said that if Sinopec and PetroChina merge, and CNOOC and SINOCHEM merge, then after the merger, Sinopec and PetroChina are likely to rank ahead of ExxonMobil and become the first in the world's top 500. But now, Sinopec and PetroChina, which have ranked third and fourth in the world's top 500, are risking greater monopoly and reduced efficiency, just to get into oneortwo places. What is the significance of the merger

"originally, it was criticized for monopoly. If PetroChina and Sinopec merged, would it be more monopoly? Back to the era of the Ministry of petrochemical industry before." A retired Sinopec official told the economic observer

however, an old oil and gas expert said that the possibility of direct merger of "two barrels of oil" is very small, and there is still the possibility of integration and reorganization of some sectors. For example, the oil service companies in the fields of exploration and production will be stripped out, so that they will no longer be dependent on the bloodthirsty survival of other sectors of the enterprise, but face the society with technology and services, and compete fairly with other similar companies in the society, This can encourage them to continuously carry out technological innovation

in addition, there was a previous saying that all oil and gas pipelines should be stripped off and a national management company should be established. The above oil and gas experts said that it is not necessary to establish only one management company, but multiple management companies can be established. In the past, three barrels of oil had their own advantages, and the industrial chains of exploration and exploitation, refining and chemical sales and offshore exploration were artificially separated, which was obviously not completely reasonable. Now, it is necessary to extend the industrial chain or merge similar items, which can not be generalized, but should be treated differently according to the plate attributes

according to the above expert analysis, once merged, oil, communications and other fields involving people's daily lives will be more monopolized, reducing efficiency and competitiveness, and these fields will encounter great resistance to integration, so the possibility of merger is small

business pressure forced restructuring

the "three barrels of oil" that was born in 1998 according to the principle of "upstream and downstream, domestic and foreign trade, production and marketing integration". At that time, there was a point of view of regional splitting. Now, facing the oil price that was halved last year and the reform direction of central enterprises this year, there is a discussion on the merger and splitting of "three barrels of oil" again in the industry

Shan Lianwen said that the sharp decline in performance caused by low oil prices is eroding the confidence of "three barrels of oil", which may in turn force them to speed up restructuring after a certain period of time in the future

around August 27, the "three barrels of oil" collectively released the mid-term results of this year. The net profits of PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC were 25.406 billion yuan, 24.4 billion yuan and 14.73 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines, including the expansion of control areas, shopping malls, production costs and many other factors, accounting for 62.7%, 22.3% and 56.1%. "In addition to Sinopec, which accounts for the majority of refining and chemical business, the net profit fell by more than 20%, and both PetroChina and CNOOC fell by about 60%. This decline is amazing. When the oil price is high, the cash flow of 'three barrels of oil' is not very abundant. If this situation continues, it will have a great impact on cash flow." An oil and gas expert told the economic observer

therefore, in order to alleviate the pressure of its own cash flow, similar to the practice of international oil giants, it is also rapidly advancing in the middle of the "three barrels of oil". It has high accuracy and sensitivity in the measurement and control of load, deformation and displacement, such as salary reduction and layoffs, investment reduction, divestiture of assets, asset swap and share replacement. It is understood that on February 2 this year